Tesis de Maestría en Economía

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Import restrictions and labor productivity: evidence from Argentina
(2026-03) Martin, Rodrigo Tomas
This paper studies how Argentina’s non-automatic import licenses (NAILs) affected manufacturing firms using ENDEI 2010–2012. A 10-percentage-point rise in sector–year exposure reduces importers’ labor productivity by about 0.36% relative to non-importers in the same sector–year. The channel runs through sales: firms reliant on regional suppliers contract, whereas firms sourcing from distant markets show no detectable response. Employment is broadly flat, with modest within-firm reallocation patterns.
Born (or not) under weak statehood: fertility and institutional shocks in Mexico
(2026-03) Ruiz, María Florencia
This paper examines how state-led institutional shocks in low-capacity settings can shape demographic behavior. I analyze two Mexican case studies in which the state sought to consolidate control and reassert authority: the 1992 ejido land-titling reform and President Calderón’s militarized anti-narcotics campaign. I use a difference-in-differences design for the former and a close-elections regression discontinuity for the latter, where narrow PAN victories proxy intensified anti-drug enforcement, to estimate causal effects on conception rates. Conception rates fall significantly in response to both shocks—roughly 1–2% for land titling and about 10% following narrow PAN wins—underscoring that institutional change can influence demographic behavior.
A proposed mechanism for cartel destabilization
(2026-03) Castellini, Lucas
This thesis studies whether a targeted demand-side subsidy could potentially destabilize pricefixing cartels. I analyze a repeated-game framework in which homogeneous firms collude by setting a price, and the Government introduces a subsidy reimbursing consumers for purchases from a single cartel member, financed with taxes. I show that, under restrictive assumptions, the subsidy raises the minimum discount factor required to sustain collusion relative to the nosubsidy benchmark, by increasing the subsidized firm's benefits from deviation. In a lineardemand model without production costs and no public-funding inefficiencies, the subsidy can induce cartel breakdown while being welfare-enhancing in the long run by achieving Bertrand competition. I then extend the analysis to account for costly public funds and positive production costs. These extensions restrict the range of discount factors under which the subsidy is socially profitable and effective. The results highlight a potential channel that may influence cartel stability, conditional on restrictive economic assumptions.
Sex-ratios in dating apps: the dating equilibrium-shift hypothesis
(2025?) Gonzo, Damian Antonio
This study explores the impact of perceived sex ratios on dating behavior and mating strategies, introducing the Dating Equilibrium-Shift Hypothesis (DESH). DESH posits that individuals of the less numerous sex gain greater bargaining power in romantic interactions, thereby shaping the mating strategies of the more abundant sex. To test this hypothesis, a laboratory experiment was conducted with 136 participants (79 men, 57 women) using a simulated dating app. Participants were assigned to one of three manipulated sex ratio conditions: male-scarce, female-scarce, and balanced (control). They evaluated 50 profiles based on attractiveness, indicating their interest with a like, and assessed their willingness to commit to a long-term relationship. The results revealed that in female-scarce conditions, men exhibited lower selectiveness, with an 11.89% decrease in the likelihood of giving a like. Conversely, in male-scarce conditions, men became more selective relative to the female-scarce group, showing a 17% lower likelihood of giving a like, consistent with DESH predictions. Although no statistically significant differences were observed in the willingness to commit to long-term, the data suggest a pattern that aligns with theoretical expectations. Due to technical issues, data for women in male-scarce conditions were incomplete, limiting the interpretability of findings for this group. Despite this constraint, the study integrates evolutionary and economic perspectives to advance our understanding of mating dynamics and underscores the influence of sex ratios on dating decisions in digital environments.
Learning from neighboring communities: a spatial analysis of improved seed adoption
(2025-12) Zapiola, Juan Segundo
This study investigates how spatial interactions between neighboring communities influence decisions regarding the proportion of improved seed adoption in rural Malawi. Using georeferenced community panel data from 2010 to 2019, the study explores two key research questions: (1) how spatial interactions with neighboring communities influence the proportion of improved seed varieties adopted, including whether key financial determinants have spillover effects on adoption, and (2) how drought shocks affect the strength and direction of these peer effects. A Spatial Lag Model (SLM) is estimated to quantify this spatial interaction, where results show that neighboring communities’ behavior significantly influences local adoption rates. Higher adoption levels in neighboring areas are associated with significantly higher local adoption rates, confirming the presence of peer effects across communities. However, the influence of neighboring communities extends beyond their own adoption behavior alone. The analysis shows that access to seed subsidies (coupons) not only drive local adoption but also spill over to influence adoption patterns in nearby communities, underscoring the potential of targeted interventions to generate broader regional impact. To address the second question, the analysis incorporates climate variability using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which allows for the examination of how drought shocks alter the dynamics of peer effects in the adoption process. Using an instrumental variables approach, the analysis finds that these shocks do not significantly alter the degree to which neighboring communities influence each other’s adoption behavior, suggesting that peer effects remain relatively stable even under adverse weather conditions.
Ahorros de costos por un cambio modal derivado de inversiones ferroviarias en Argentina
(2025-12) Sant, Marcos
El trabajo evalúa los ahorros económicos y ambientales derivados de un cambio en la distribución modal del transporte de cargas en Argentina ante mejoras en la red ferroviaria. Mediante un modelo econométrico de elección modal, estimado con datos de matrices origen–destino y atributos de viaje de 2022, se identifican los principales determinantes en la elección entre camión y ferrocarril. Los resultados indican que las diferencias en tarifas, tiempos de transporte, longitud del recorrido, densidad vial y disponibilidad de infraestructura de acopio influyen significativamente en la participación del modo ferroviario. Con base en estos resultados, se simula un escenario de mejoras operativas del ferrocarril —como mayor velocidad y longitud de formaciones— que reducen los costos logísticos y generan un traspaso de 22,7 millones de toneladas desde el transporte automotor. Este cambio modal implica un ahorro social de USD 406 millones y una reducción de 468 mil toneladas de CO₂ en 2022. La evaluación económica para el período 2025-2075 arroja un Valor Actual Neto negativo para un escenario de renovación total de la red, con una Tasa Interna de Retorno del 4,9%. Sin embargo, al focalizar las inversiones en los corredores de mayor potencial, la TIR asciende al 7,1% y el VAN resulta positivo con una tasa de descuento del 5%.
Prediction and learning of exporting firms: a study of Colombia
(2025-12) Mannarino, Valentín
This thesis applies machine learning techniques to predict which manufacturing firms in Colombia are likely to become exporters, using data from the Encuesta Anual Manufacturera (EAM) and Encuesta de Desarrollo e Innovaci´on Tecnol´ogica (EDIT) for the period 2015–2019. The objective is to estimate each firm’s “distance to export” through a probability score learned from the characteristics of existing exporters. Among the different algorithms tested, Logit with LASSO regularization delivers the best predictive performance, correctly identifying nearly three out of four actual exporters. Building on these predictions, the study introduces an exporting score, a probability measure that ranks firms by their proximity to the export margin. This score captures heterogeneity among non-exporters, anticipates entry and exit dynamics, and highlights sectoral and geographic clusters of latent export potential. In addition, the analysis shows that a set of firm level characteristics consistently emerge as the most relevant predictors across models: importer status, firm size, and combined spillovers, complemented by operational variables such as value added, inventories, and quality certification. The exporting score also reveals a transition zone around a score of 0.55–0.58, which delineates the range where policy support can be most effective, either by activating firms close to exporting or by preventing the exit of current exporters. Beyond its analytical value, the score provides a practical input for policy design and evaluation, allowing export promotion agencies to target resources more efficiently, define eligibility thresholds, and even implement randomized or regression-discontinuity designs. These findings highlight the potential of predictive approaches to enhance export promotion under budget constraints, maximizing the impact of limited public resources on export growth and retention.
Expropriations, political risk and the business cycle
(2025-12) Der Meguerditchian, Nicolás Esteban
This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of oil sector expropriations in resource-dependent economies. Motivated by the nationalizations in Venezuela (2007) and Algeria (2006), I first provide empirical evidence showing that expropriations led to a persistent decline in oil production and a rise in sovereign risk. I then develop a dynamic small open economy model in which the government faces a regime-switching decision: whether to allow the foreign firm to operate under private contract or to nationalize the oil sector. Expropriations are more likely when oil prices rise, and when both the capital stock and the level of debt are high. The model reproduces key macroeconomic dynamics around expropriation events: capital stock declines before nationalization as the firm anticipates a regime switch, output drops sharply at the time of expropriation and continues to fall persistently. Consumption spikes temporarily as the government captures the full stream of oil revenues, while sovereign debt decreases in the aftermath due to tighter borrowing conditions.
Shifting the bidding game: reform of auction design for petroleum exploration and production rights in Argentina
(2025-11) Peruchin, Tomas Francisco
This thesis examines the design of petroleum exploration and production (E&P) rights auctions in Argentina, emphasizing the theoretical and policy implications of President Milei’s 2024 Ley Bases reform to Hydrocarbon Law 17,319, which introduced royalty bidding as an alternative to the prevailing investment-commitment framework. The study develops a Bayesian auction model in which firms, facing incomplete information, compete after receiving noisy private signals regarding the tract’s underlying value. Two mechanisms are examined: (i) workcommitment bidding, where competition is based on the scale of exploration and production expenditures under a flat royalty; and (ii) royalty bidding, where firms bid a royalty rate rather than committing to a fixed investment level. The symmetric Bayesian Nash equilibrium is characterized by numerically solving coupled integro-differential equations, calibrated to the specific conditions of Argentina’s hydrocarbon sector. The analysis reveals a key policy tradeoff: royalty bidding enhances government rent capture but exposes the state to greater fiscal volatility, whereas work-commitment schemes provide more stable, though typically smaller, revenue flows, limiting the upside from high-quality tracts.
Democracy does cause happiness
(2025-11) Loriente, Martín Iñaki
This paper provides causal evidence that democracy enhances individual well-being. Drawing on harmonized microdata from more than 100 countries and exploiting variation across birth cohorts and survey waves, we show that greater exposure to democratic institutions leads people to report higher income, better health, more personal autonomy, higher life satisfaction, and greater subjective happiness. Building on recent literature that documents the effect of democratic transitions on economic growth, we shift the focus from national aggregates to individual-level outcomes to examine how democracy shapes personal welfare. The effects remain robust across alternative model specifications, clustering approaches, estimation strategies, and subsamples, and a wide set of additional checks. The temporal dynamics further support our interpretation, as exposure during impressionable years plays a critical role. Mechanism analyses indicate that institutional performance is central: countries with stronger economic performance, greater transparency, better state capacity, and more redistribution exhibit substantially larger effects, typically between 1.5 and 3 times those observed in lower-performing democracies.
Nada como ir juntos a la par : evidencia de un programa anti-corrupción en Brasil
(2025-11) Sambrana, Gerónimo
La corrupción es un problema que persiste y adquiere relevancia en los países en desarrollo, alterando incentivos individuales, destruyendo la capacidad de generar crecimiento e impidiendo la reducción de la pobreza. Este trabajo indaga en la relación que existe entre alineamiento político entre los niveles nacional y municipal en Brasil y el nivel de corrupción detectado en los municipios. A partir de un diseño de regresión discontinua, se encuentra que los municipios en los que un prefeito alineado al gobierno nacional está en el poder tienen 2.73 órdenes de inspección con hechos graves de corrupción más que los municipios en los cuales el prefeito no está alineado, lo cual en términos relativos es un efecto del orden del 46.8 %. Asimismo, se exploran las explicaciones alternativas de que este efecto sea resultado de: (i) prefeitos pertenecientes al espectro político de izquierda, (ii) prefeitos que se encuentran limitados en su mandato y (iii) diferencias partidarias en el nivel de corrupción. Los resultados de dichos análisis no permiten descartar que la mayor corrupción se deba al alineamiento político.
From closed form to black box? a comparison of debiased vs automatic debiased machine learning in the sharing economy
(2025-10) Quispe Rojas, Anzony
Estimation of causal parameters in the context of high dimensional parameters (𝑝 > 𝑛) can be challenging. Debiased Machine Learning (DML) method solves this issue adding machine learning models in the estimation of parameter controlling regularization and overfitting bias using Neyman Orthogonal scores and cross fitting. However, this method needs to derive the proper equation function for the specific low dimensional parameter: policy variable, continues variable, etc. Automatic debiased machine learning (ADML) skip this step by approximating the explicit form using available data. This paper (i) briefly describe the statistical differences between DML and ADML, (ii) illustrates the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of both methods in two synthetic settings: regular conditions and high omitted variable probability conditions and (iii) applies both methods to Airbnb listings from Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina, to estimate the effect of Superhost status on listing prices, and contrast this result with other cities (New York City, Mexico DF, and Rio de Janeiro). I find that both estimations (DML and ADML) are the same in terms of sign and statistical significance with very low discrepancies in the magnitude.
Global dollar shocks and spillovers into EMDEs: the channels of commodity prices and country risk
(2025-10) Marinelli, Gaston
This paper shows how global dollar appreciations transmit to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) through commodity prices and country risk. Using quarterly data for 22 EMDEs from 1999–2019, I combine the Obstfeld & Zhou (2023) dataset with country-specific commodity price indices and classify countries as commodity exporters or importers via a trade-balance rule. Global dollar appreciation shocks explain up to 16% of the forecast-error variance of commodity terms of trade (CToT) and up to 9% of EMBI spreads. A global dollar appreciation depreciates EMDE currencies, raises EMBI, depresses investment, and lowers GDP, with muted CPI effects. Stratifying by commodity status reveals sharp heterogeneity: exporters suffer larger and more persistent adverse responses, while importers seem stable. To uncover mechanisms, I implement an approach `a la Cloyne–Jord`a–Taylor (2023) to estimate indirect effects. A more favorable CToT response mitigates output and demand contractions, whereas higher commodity import prices and larger EMBI responses amplify adverse outcomes.
Equilibrio inflacionario con preferencias monetarias partidarias
(2025-10) Partarrieu, Damián Brian
Este trabajo extiende el modelo clásico de inconsistencia temporal incorporando incertidumbre sobre las preferencias futuras del Banco Central. En economías con baja independencia monetaria los cambios de gobierno pueden modificar la función de pérdida del Banco Central, creando un sesgo inflacionario adicional al de Barro-Gordon. El modelo introduce dos tipos de Banco Central y expectativas racionales, donde los agentes forman su inflación esperada asignando probabilidades a cada tipo según tres elementos: el grado de independencia del Banco Central, un shock electoral asociado a la transición política y señales ideológicas del partido con más chances de gobernar. Estos factores elevan transitoriamente la inflación esperada y encarecen el ajuste en la ventana posterior a la elección. Utilizando un panel de 31 países entre 1996 y 2018, encontramos que la inflación se acelera en los seis meses posteriores a las elecciones, que el efecto es mayor cuando gana un partido de izquierda, que la independencia del Banco Central atenúa o elimina este shock y que las elecciones reñidas amplifican la aceleración. Los resultados confirman el mecanismo teórico y resaltan el rol estabilizador de instituciones monetarias sólidas.
Evaluating efficiency gains in the Linear Probability Model
(2025-09) Pacheco, Tomás Daniel
This paper evaluates the efficiency gains of the Adaptive Least Squares (ALS) estimator proposed by Romano and Wolf (2017) in the context of Linear Probability Models (LPM), where heteroskedasticity is inherent to the model. Using empirical applications and Monte Carlo simulations, we compare ALS to OLS and Probit estimators under three strategies for handling predicted probabilities outside the (0, 1) interval: bounding, sigmoid transformation, and trimming. The results show that efficiency gains from ALS are not systematic and depend on the correction method, with the bounding approach yielding the most substantial improvements.
The impact of non-automatic licenses over imports and supplier basket of importing firms evidence from Argentina in the last decade
(2025-09) Ambrosano Bertol, Carla Sofía
This thesis examines how Argentina’s non-automatic import licenses (NAILs) affect import levels and the composition of suppliers. Using a monthly 8-digit product panel (2012–2024) merged with NAILs regulations, I estimate fixed-effects models with macro controls. NAILs are associated with sizable import contractions, higher concentration of sourcing across countries, heterogeneous effects across origin groups in stacked specifications (with sharper relative contractions for the U.S. and BTA partners, and an attenuation for China), and a decline in the ratio of high-income to low-income origin shares. Results are robust across specifications and consistent with NAILs raising per-supplier fixed costs.
“La soja es peronista”: evidence from commodity shocks and electoral outcomes in Argentina
(2025-08) Garay Adriel, Germán
This thesis investigates how exogenous shocks in international soybean prices affect electoral support for Peronist presidential candidates across Argentine municipalities. Drawing on a combination of historical analysis and quantitative methods, the study proposes that the political effects of commodity booms are shaped not only by material redistribution, but also by culturally persistent narratives rooted in Argentina’s foundational political cleavage between the urban-industrial Peronist coalition and the landowning agro-export elite. Using a difference-in-differences design, the analysis compares electoral outcomes in soybean-producing versus non-producing regions during periods of international price shocks between 2003 and 2023. The results show that, following positive price shocks, support for the Peronist party declines in agricultural regions while increasing in urban areas, even after controlling export taxes and macroeconomic distortions. This pattern suggests that some voters interpret commodity booms through historically embedded lenses: as threats to income in rural areas and as opportunities for symbolic justice in urban centers. Quantitatively, the symbolic mechanism is estimated to account for about half of the total regional divergence observed during boom years, highlighting the potential importance of cultural persistence in shaping electoral behavior. The findings are robust to alternative specifications using agroecological suitability indices and placebo tests and contribute to the empirical study of persistent cultural mechanisms rooted in Argentina’s political history.
How much for a lifetime? : pricing annuities under heterogeneity and risk
(2025-08) Riquelme, Ana Abigail
This paper studies how life insurance companies price annuity products in the Chilean pension market. Using detailed administrative data that contains all formal offers made to retirees for various annuity contracts, I examine whether insurers adjust prices based on observable individual characteristics, such as gender, marital status, and income, and whether pricing patterns are consistent with adverse selection or prudent risk management. In particular, I assess whether back-loaded annuities systematically exhibit different money’s worth ratios (MWRs). Additionally, I examine whether pricing reflects cohort-specific mortality risk. I also investigate how insurers adjust prices in response to exogenous shifts in survival probabilities, exploiting the inclusion of diseases in Chile’s AUGE health reform as a plausibly exogenous shock to cohort life expectancy. My findings contribute to a better understanding of how regulated annuity providers incorporate both individual risk factors and systemic longevity risk into pricing decisions.
Bridging gaps: a theoretical framework for central bank investments in payment systems
(2025-08) Ochoa, Gonzalo Agustín
This work develops a theoretical framework in which the central bank acts as a utilitymaximizing agent that introduces a new payment system to promote financial inclusion, inspired by Brazil’s Pix. The central bank chooses both the investment level and the fee charged to users. The model shows that these decisions depend on several factors, including the relative benefits for buyers and sellers between the new system and traditional banking, and an exogenous political parameter: the priority given to financial inclusion. The analysis identifies a critical point at which financial inclusion objectives balance the trade-offs between investment and pricing. The model offers insights into how central banks design and implement payment systems aimed at increasing financial inclusion, highlighting the role of policy priorities in shaping outcomes.
Fiscal dominance, shocks, and the currency distribution of sovereign debt: the case of a small open economy
(2025-08) Di Iorio, Juan Pablo
This study examines the effects of incorporating fiscal dominance, based on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, into a New Keynesian Small Open Economy (NK-SOE) model. This framework enables a comparison between the responses of an economy characterized by fiscal dominance and those of canonical NK-SOE models when faced with monetary or external shocks. Notable differences emerge in nominal variables, such as inflation rates and nominal devaluation, as well as in household consumption and the real exchange rate. Furthermore, the model is expanded to account for government debt issued in foreign currency, introducing a fiscal channel related to the currency composition of the government’s debt. Additionally, the structure of taxes and government expenditures—particularly fiscal revenues tied to the non-tradable sector—plays a significant role in shaping the economic response when the government issues debt in foreign currency.

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