Tesis de Maestría en Economía

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Selection of optimal window size and ensemble methods for rental price estimation with XGBoost: Evidence from Buenos Aires
(2024?) Sosa, Juan Bautista
In the context of forecasting rental prices of residential properties, the fact that the relationship between rents and property characteristics may be subject to significant changes over time can hinder the predictive performance of models that do not adjust to these changes. Previous studies have tested the accuracy of different statistical models in predicting rent prices, but none has focused on how the definition of the estimation window of observations used in the training stage can affect predictive performance. This paper explores the impact of selecting different window sizes in a forecasting experiment of rent prices in the City of Buenos Aires from 2020 to 2022 using the machine learning algorithm XGBoost. The results obtained for out-of-sample one-month-ahead forecasts indicate that the decision to use an expanding window or rolling windows is not trivial in terms of the achieved predictive performance. Among a set of rolling window sizes, the model with a size of 6 months yields the lowest error in terms of root mean square error and mean absolute error. Additionally, three methods that dynamically combine the predictions of models with different window sizes are tested. An ensemble method that outputs a weighted average of the predictions using time-varying weights based on the inverse of previous forecasting errors emerges as the superior strategy, producing a mean absolute percentage error of 19.7%. Overall, these results underscore the need to take into account the temporal dimension when selecting observations for training if the goal is to maximize out-of-sample predictive performance.
Something is coming: meteorite sightings and religious preferences
(2024?) Navajas Jauregui, Juan Sebastian
Can meteorite sightings intensify religious sentiments? This paper exploits the exogenous variability of meteorite sightings in the United States to investigate the causal relationship with religious intensity at the county level. The results show that meteorite sighting increases religiosity in the treated counties, as measured by the names children receive from their parents at birth. The historical perspective of this phenomenon allows me to analyse a society with a low dynamic in the flow of information, which is crucial for such a phenomenon to be seen as unpredictable and inexplicable. The hypothesis underlying this result is that religion serves as a response to the existentialist feelings aroused by such events. The results are in line with coping theory.
Statistical discrimination during the 1871 yellow fever epidemic in Buenos Aires
(2024-11) Millas Caputo, Juan Francisco
This paper aims to assess the existence (and if so, estimate the magnitude) of a discriminatory bias against low-income and immigrant households in the context of the 1871 yellow fever epidemic in Buenos Aires. The argument presents the previous anecdotal evidence on discrimination based on socioeconomic outcomes and nationality from government-appointed commissioners, and proposes this investigation as an econometric approach that assesses and quantifies the existence of this phenomenon using historical data. The identification strategy consists of commissioner-level fixed-effects models to control for individual-specific unobservable variables. The main takeaway is that, in line with previous anecdotal evidence presented by other authors, these households’ (conventillos) probability of being fined when non-compliant of hygiene norms was 14 p.p. higher than other types of households and the monetary value of the fines they received were 159 $m/c (pesos moneda corriente) higher.
Cyclicality meets rigidities
(2024-10) Ruiz Orrico, Pilar
Economic academia often warns against the dangers of procyclicality in public spending. However, the realization of these risks depends on asymmetries in the degree of cyclicality throughout the business cycle. Governments incur deficits only if they fail to reduce spending during downturns as much as they increase it during preceding booms. This study explores these asymmetries in the context of goods and services and compensation to employees, the components of public consumption, for a large panel of advanced and emerging economies. We conduct our empirical analysis using panel regressions, and validate our results with a trade-weighted growth instrumental variable, focusing on identifying associations rather than establishing causal relationships. In advanced economies, output growth is associated to a small positive effect on public consumption. In contrast, in emerging economies, output growth is connected to a more than proportional positive effect on goods and services, while becoming acyclical during recessions, exhibiting an overall semi-procyclical behavior. Furthermore, compensation to employees in emerging markets is related to a less than proportional increase during economics expansions, indicating possible rigidities associated with this category. This phenomenon, referred to as "downward rigidity" in public consumption, not only paves the way for fiscal stress during economic downturns but also leads to sustained growth in the size of the state.
Falta de seguimiento médico regular, reducción del gasto asociado a la salud y aumento en la tasa de mortalidad
(2024-10) Hedemann, Malena
Esta investigación analiza datos de una obra social en el sur del Gran Buenos Aires, Argentina, recopilados entre 2013 y 2022, con un total de 415,688 observaciones. Se evalúan el gasto en salud, consultas médicas, planes, defunciones y distribución etaria de los afiliados. Mediante modelos de regresión lineal, se explora la relación entre gasto en salud y mortalidad, con énfasis en el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19. El estudio se enfoca en la asociación entre el año 2021 y las tasas de mortalidad, considerando la reducción en el gasto en salud en 2020. Los resultados muestran que la disminución del gasto en 2020, estimada en \$2,458.8 (p<0.01), se asocia con un aumento en la mortalidad en 2021, con un incremento de 0.00335 en la tasa de mortalidad (p<0.01). Este análisis evidencia cómo las restricciones de la pandemia afectan la salud pública y subraya la importancia de mantener inversiones en salud para mitigar el impacto en la mortalidad en contextos de crisis.
The Effect of Bikesharing on Subway Ridership
(2024-10) De Martini, Santiago
Accessibility to public transportation is a key determinant of transport mode choice. When the distance to or from a public transport hub is beyond walking range, commuters tend to dismiss trip alternatives that require walking to such a hub. This paper examines whether bikeshare systems can improve accessibility to subway stations, thereby expanding their catchment areas and increasing ridership. I study this problem in the context of the City of Buenos Aires, where more than 400 bike stations opened in staggered dates. Following a differences-in-differences design, I estimate that when a bikeshare station opens within 400m of a subway station, the daily volume of passengers of the latter increases by 14.5%. Moreover, this effect is stronger in non-working days, where I register an increase of 20.7%. Furthermore, I find that for each additional subway station receiving a nearby bikeshare station, the ridership of its subway line increases by 13.6%, indicating that the results are not influenced by spillover effects. Finally, I propose a discrete-choice model that could be used to estimate the optimal locations for bikeshare stations, contingent on the availability of additional data. These results highlight the potential of bikeshare systems to boost subway ridership in urban areas, thereby reducing congestion and emissions through the promotion of sustainable transportation.
¿Qué rol juegan los descuentos en contextos de alta inflación?: consecuencias de la alta volatilidad en los precios en los mercados de búsqueda
(2024-09) Morandi, Micaela
La inflación es un fenómeno bien conocido y estudiado por la literatura. La alta volatilidad de los precios reales trae aparejada múltiples distorsiones en los mercados que alejan a la economía del ´optimo, entre ellos, el mercado de búsqueda. La pérdida del contenido informativo de los precios aumenta el precio de reserva de los agentes y colapsa la dimensión intertemporal del problema de búsqueda, a la vez de que permite que firmas ineficientes participen en el mercado. En este contexto de incertidumbre, la introducción de un descuento resulta una estrategia de equilibrio para las firmas.
Beyond Pain Relief: Assessing OxyContin’s Impact on Foster Care New Entries
(2024-07) Bullano, Maria Emilia
In this study, I assess the causal impact of the early stages of the opioid crisis on new entries into foster care, focusing on the introduction of OxyContin in 1996 and the influence of Triplicate Prescription Programs (TPP) in the United States. My findings indicate a composition effect: in states without TPP, where OxyContin had greater market penetration, children entering foster care are more likely to come from households where parents abuse drugs. These results underscore the complex interplay between public health policies and child welfare outcomes, highlighting the need for integrated strategies addressing the broader implications of drug policy on vulnerable populations.
Effects of Weather Shocks on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Argentina
(2024-07) de Marcos, Inés
How do weather shocks affect labor market outcomes in Argentina? This study examines the effect of five types of weather shocks —droughts, heatwaves, cold waves, and intense and excessive rainfall— on labor market outcomes in Argentina from 2001 to 2010. In the context of increasing climate variability, this study is particularly relevant for economies like Argentina, which are highly dependent on agriculture and have significant segments of the population vulnerable to these shocks. The study presents a unique data set that merges 50 years of high-resolution climatic data with the 2000 and 2010 national censuses. Additionally, it includes imputed income data derived from the 2005 and 2010 Household Survey (EPH) using a survey-to-census methodology. By employing a differences-in-differences approach, the study examines the effects of drought, heatwaves, cold waves, and intense and excessive rainfall on employment status, labor force participation, and labor income. Results show that drought, heatwaves, and cold waves have significant negative effects on labor market outcomes. Importantly, these effects are disproportionally adverse for poorer income quintiles and less-educated individuals, potentially exacerbating existing social vulnerabilities. The study contributes to the climate-economy literature, particularly on labor markets, by extending beyond the usual single weather approach and, methodologically, utilizing a survey-to-census income imputation technique. The findings highlight the critical importance of quantifying weather impacts to inform the design of public policies for increased resilience to weather shocks in middle-income countries like Argentina.
Do ambassadors matter? The effect of ambassadors on trade promotion
(2024-07) Riottini Depetris, Franco Jesús
This thesis examines the impact of ambassadors on trade promotion, utilizing the 2012 Paraguayan political crisis as a natural experiment. Using highly disaggregated customs data and a difference-in-differences approach, we analyze how the unexpected withdrawal of Argentina's ambassador affected bilateral trade patterns. Our findings reveal that the ambassador's absence led to a significant decrease in Paraguay's imports from Argentina, primarily driven by reductions in the extensive margin of trade. We observed a 3% decline in the number of suppliers and a 5% decrease in the number of imported products. To elucidate the mechanisms, we analyze data on commercial and specific actions undertaken by the Argentine embassy in Paraguay. Results indicate that the ambassador's absence corresponded with a substantial decrease in both major trade events and smaller, targeted activities, despite no change in the embassy's budget allocation. Our analysis is robust to various specifications, including different regional samples and trade volume thresholds. This research contributes to the literature on economic diplomacy by providing causal evidence of ambassadors' role in facilitating international trade, particularly in establishing new trade relationships.
Shining a Light on Resilience: Overcoming Hurricane Odile’s Impact on Economic Activity
(2024-06) Pasman, Clara María
Climate change-induced disasters pose a significant threat to economic activity in developing regions, particularly those with inadequate infrastructure services. Understanding the impact of climate-related hazards, achieving resiliency, and mitigating the consequences for affected communities are critical challenges for these regions. In this study, we focus on Hurricane Odile, which struck Baja California Sur, Mexico, in September 2014, severely affecting economic activity across localities. By analyzing high-frequency and highly-disaggregated nighttime light data (NTL) from NASA, combined with census data, we characterize the recovery path of the economic activity following the hurricane’s impact. Our methodology allows us to characterize recovery timelines and identify distinctive recovery patterns across localities. We find that Hurricane Odile caused an immediate drop in luminosity levels, reflecting a downturn in overall activity, with localities experiencing varying degrees of impact and recovery. Overall, economic recovery was not achieved over the year after the hurricane. Recovery patterns differ across localities, emphasizing the need for tailored mitigation policies and aid plans.
¿Quién es el siguiente? Impacto de suicidios presidenciales en la sociedad
(2024-06) Arispe Tejada, Samuel
La preocupación por el aumento de la tasa suicidios en diversos países se ve exacerbada por nuestra influencia mutua en un entorno cada vez más conectado, donde la información se propaga rápidamente a través de Internet y las redes sociales. Este estudio investiga cómo el suicidio de un ex presidente muy conocido en el Perú afecta la probabilidad de que ocurran suicidios en las fechas cercanas al evento, revelando un aumento del 71% en dicha probabilidad durante la primera semana después del suceso. Además, se identifican efectos heterogéneos con el nivel de cohesión social, religiosidad arraigo hacia la figura pública y acceso a Internet como posibles explicaciones de esta tendencia, lo que subraya la importancia de considerar estos elementos al desarrollar estrategias para prevenir los suicidios en nuestra sociedad.
Inflación y riesgo en las decisiones de inversión de los hogares
(2024-05) Tanzi, Horacio Nicolás
Este estudio cuantifica los efectos de estado estacionario de la inflación sobre el riesgo en las decisiones de inversión de los hogares. En una economía pequeña y abierta, utilizando un modelo neokeynesiano de agentes heterogéneos (HANK), se introduce un activo riesgoso, el capital k, y un activo libre de riesgo, los bonos b. El retorno del capital se modela a través de una variante de Calvo-pricing, vinculándo el riesgo en k a la inflación. Los resultados indican que la inclusión del efecto de la inflación sobre el riesgo del capital provoca una recomposición de la cartera de los hogares, disminuyendo el stock de capital y aumentando el stock de activos seguros. Esta recomposición implica una disminución de la producción en estado estacionario.
Nowcasting economic activity in Argentina using newspaper articles
(2024-03) Romero, Juan Pablo
This paper explores leveraging unstructured textual data from Argentinian newspapers to nowcast the monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) of Argentina. Various economic uncertainty indexes are constructed by applying natural language processing techniques on local newspaper articles. The association between these indexes and the EMAE is analyzed through correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, and out-of-sample nowcasting exercises. The results suggest that the proposed indexes exhibit predictive value for nowcasting the EMAE across diverse data splits. While limitations exist regarding generalization across economic cycles, this study contributes in the viability of extracting valuable signals from news content to gain timely insights into economic trends, and highlights the potential for nowcasting key indicators from unstructured data as text mining capabilities and data availability continue expanding.
Shaking rivers and budget cycles : a comprehensive framework
(2024-03) Campabadal, Joaquín
The 1990s were host to a variety of political economy papers that tried to explain why and how incumbents would use fiscal resources strategically to get reelected. Under the main argument, a politician might be inclined to increase spending/reduce taxes when close to an election to increase their reelection probabilities, even if this goes against their preferences (i.e. a party increases expenditure even if it’s right-leaning) or if it harms the economy in the long run (by reducing the stream of resources in the future). Allegedly, this literature - called the political budget cycle literature - wanted to endow the experiences of the Reagan administration (among others) with a rationale, especially those near the end of his second term. In this thesis I will focus on two objectives. First, I will study the US case to try to understand whether these dynamics are present there, if they are heterogenous across parties and how they are affected by the likelihood of being reelected. Secondly, I will develop a theoretical framework in which parties use fiscal variables detrimentally to enhance their chances at reelection, and explore the interplay between election prospects and the behavior of the incumbent regarding fiscal variables.
Transiciones laborales hacia la informalidad luego de un sudden stop: el caso de Argentina 2018
(2024-03) Alvarez Kuhnle, Tomás
Este trabajo busca analizar los efectos que tiene un shock internacional sobre la composición de los mercados de trabajo en países emergentes con alta incidencia de la informalidad. Para ello se toma el sudden stop ocurrido en Argentina comparando los cuartos trimestres de 2017 y 2018. Se utilizan los datos de panel de la EPH para analizar las transiciones y se emplea un modelo logit multinomial para identificar las características personales y del puesto de trabajo que influyen en la probabilidad de cambiar de categoría laboral. Se observa que los empleados en el sector no transable tuvieron una mayor probabilidad de haber cambiado a un trabajo informal, mientras que aquellos que ya estaban en la informalidad era más probable que perdieran su empleo en comparación con los trabajadores en el sector transable. Posteriormente, se utiliza un modelo DSGE que diferencia entre sectores transables y no transables, así como entre empleo formal e informal, para simular el impacto del shock y explicar los hechos estilizados observados. Se encuentra que el modelo base no logra capturar de manera precisa las dinámicas de la relación formal-informal dentro de los sectores transable y no transable. Sin embargo, luego se realizan extensiones en busca de entender cuáles son los supuestos que pueden generar las dinámicas esperadas.
Memory and Biased Reports: Evidence from a Pilot Experiment
(2024-02) Serramo, Martín Alexis
In certain situations, people’s earnings rely on their self-reports of private information to third-parties. Are self-reports more biased in a financially convenient direction when recalling the information is more challenging? I present evidence from the pilot of an experiment designed to investigate this question. In this experiment, I assess the effectiveness of an interference task in increasing the difficulty of remembering information to be reported later and test its impact on misreporting among participants incentivized to report what is convenient for them. I find no evidence of increased misreporting when participants engage in the interference task before making their reports. The interpretation of this result is complicated by the fact that the interference task reduces perceived memory accuracy but does not affect objective memory accuracy.
What Works to Strengthen Beekeeper Productivity and Climate Resilience? Evidence from México
(2024-02) Luca, Victoria
This paper studies the effectiveness of a technical assistance program aimed at improving the productivity and the climate resilience of beekeepers in rural Mexico. The program was provided free-of-charge to beekeepers who lost hives during tropical storm Cristobal in 2020. Program participants in 14 localities of Yucatan were offered four main program components: (i) basic inputs, (ii) a year-long training on beehive management, (iii) queen bees, and (iv) a specific training on queen breeding. Due to the difficulties of implementing the program during the COVID-19 Pandemic, participants in 3 other nearby localities were offered only basic inputs and serve as a control group. We use a difference-in-differences approach combined with entropy balance to control for pre-existing differences across groups. We take advantage of a detailed baseline and follow-up survey of 356 beekeepers who participated in the program. Treated beekeepers increased their number of hives, honey production, yields, and adoption of best practices substantially more than the control group, who only received basic inputs. While the provision of the queen bee asset had the largest impact on honey production and yield, the trainings were particularly important for the adoption of best practices, which bodes well for longer-term climate resilience.
Should I stay or should I go? effects of being acquired on employee outcomes: evidence from Brazil
(2024-02) Liwski, Joaquín Matías
This paper examines the diverse impacts of corporate acquisitions on employees with data from Brazil’s formal employment sector (RAIS survey, 2007-2015) and the Thomson Reuters SDC Platinum Database. Employing a matched event studies design, I navigate labor market complexities, revealing heterogeneous effects at individual and firm levels. Notably, the analysis uncovers a significant short-term increase in log-wages for individuals in acquired firms, particularly in the immediate 0 to 1 years following events; however, separation outcomes predominantly occur in the same year as the acquisition. Job changes play a pivotal role, with incumbents and voluntary leavers experiencing positive outcomes, while involuntary terminations lead to declines, also in the long-run. The study explores age-related, educational, skill-based, and occupational differences, showing diverse impacts across these dimensions. Additionally, firm size emerges as a critical factor, influencing log-wages and separation outcomes. Ultimately, the change in firm productivity or firm-specific wage premiums drives observed effects, underlining one mechanismn of M&A impacts on the workforce.
Reassessing a cocaine shock : a contrary narrative from Rabo de Peixe
(2024-02) Cabral, Juan Andrés
This work seeks to analyze the effects of an exogenous shock increase in the supply of cocaine using São Miguel Island, Portugal as a case study. Located in the Azores archipelago, the island is politically organized as an autonomous region. In January 2001 half a ton of cocaine unexpectedly washed ashore on Rabo de Peixe, São Miguel, leading to media reports of various alterations on the island, such as a surge in drug dealers and a significant reduction in the drug's price. These events even formed the basis for a documentary and a Netflix series. However, my comprehensive analysis utilizing a Synthetic Control approach paints a contrasting picture. I aimed to examine the short and medium-term repercussions of the increased accessibility of cocaine on São Miguel's crime rates, unemployment, and deaths. Contrary to the narrative constructed by the media and popular culture, I found no significant effects on these outcomes. This study challenges existing media narratives and provides a robust, data-driven insight into the actual impact of this incident on São Miguel.

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