Tesis de Maestría en Finanzas

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Sensibilidad de la curva de Nelson y Siegel frente a cambios macroeconómicos
(2018-11) Alberti, Sebastián Matías
This paper seeks to calibrate Argentina´s New York-Law sovereign bonds, within the time series that begins on June 29, 2017 to September 6, 2018 through the model of Nelson & Siegel (1987). A discussion is held about which bonds should be used. Weights were tested to compare results and then the time series was divided into two partitioned segments by a date from which the hypothesis of a macroeconomic change. Afterwards, it tries to study if the mathematical model is permeable for such changes, if it is a good short-term predictor and if it can be used as an immunization strategy for a fixed-income portfolio. The results show that the Nelson and Siegel model provides a smooth adjustment and a price error of less than 0.3% on average in the bonds that make up the curve for the section prior to macroeconomic change, although with an error greater than 0.7% in the later section. In agreement with other similar researches, the Random Walk model surpasses other competing models, so the shortterm prediction capacity is questionable. The immunization of a bond portfolio is "stabilized" in times of rise, with lower yield than the original portfolio. However, in times of falls, the immunized portfolio compensates, with a much smoother tendency.