Born (or not) under weak statehood: fertility and institutional shocks in Mexico
Date
2026-03
Authors
Ruiz, María Florencia
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Murphy, Tomás
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía
Abstract
This paper examines how state-led institutional shocks in low-capacity settings can shape demographic behavior. I analyze two Mexican case studies in which the state sought to consolidate control and reassert authority: the 1992 ejido land-titling reform and President Calderón’s militarized anti-narcotics campaign. I use a difference-in-differences design for the former and a close-elections regression discontinuity for the latter, where narrow PAN victories proxy intensified anti-drug enforcement, to estimate causal effects on conception rates. Conception rates fall significantly in response to both shocks—roughly 1–2% for land titling and about 10% following narrow PAN wins—underscoring that institutional change can influence demographic behavior.
Description
Fil: Ruiz, María Florencia. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.