Reassessing a cocaine shock : a contrary narrative from Rabo de Peixe
Date
2024-02
Authors
Cabral, Juan Andrés
relationships.isContributorOfPublication
Rossi, Martín
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía
Abstract
This work seeks to analyze the effects of an exogenous shock increase in the supply of cocaine using São Miguel Island, Portugal as a case study. Located in the Azores archipelago, the island is politically organized as an autonomous region. In January 2001 half a ton of cocaine unexpectedly washed ashore on Rabo de Peixe, São Miguel, leading to media reports of various alterations on the island, such as a surge in drug dealers and a significant reduction in the drug's price. These events even formed the basis for a documentary and a Netflix series. However, my comprehensive analysis utilizing a Synthetic Control approach paints a contrasting picture. I aimed to examine the short and medium-term repercussions of the increased accessibility of cocaine on São Miguel's crime rates, unemployment, and deaths. Contrary to the narrative constructed by the media and popular culture, I found no significant effects on these outcomes. This study challenges existing media narratives and provides a robust, data-driven insight into the actual impact of this incident on São Miguel.
Description
Fil: Cabral, Juan Andrés. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.