El caso Bitcoin : ¿qué nos ha enseñado la historia? Un breve repaso por las burbujas especulativas más representativas y sus relaciones con el Bitcoin
Date
2018-07
Authors
Andrada, Guillermo Enrique
Balerdi, Manuel Ignacio
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Fernández Molero, Diego
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía
Abstract
La historia ha demostrado que las denominadas burbujas financieras han sido la causa de diversas crisis que han tenido efectos nocivos para los sistemas económicos. A grandes rasgos, las burbujas fueron generadas como resultado de una suba exponencial y sistemática en el precio de un activo, ocasionada por una demanda injustificada desde la perspectiva de su valor intrínseco. Finalmente, esto deriva en un sell-out generalizado y, por ende, en el derrumbe de su precio de mercado. La intención de este trabajo es la de analizar, a partir de la bibliografía pertinente, una cuestión de actualidad como lo es el fenómeno del Bitcoin, y contrastar con casos de epidemias especulativas históricas, que, entendemos, guardan considerables similitudes con la criptomoneda. A partir de un análisis cuantitativo, mediante el empleo del modelo log-periodic power law y la comparación con burbujas históricas, demostramos que el precio de mercado de la criptomoneda pareciera presentar, entre agosto de 2015 y diciembre de 2017, el comportamiento típico de una burbuja.
History has proved that the so called financial bubbles have been the cause of several crisis that have had harmful effects on the economic systems. In general terms, bubbles were generated as a result of an exponential and systematic growth of an asset’s price, resulting from an unjustified demand, regarding its intrinsic value. This ends up in a generalized sell-out and, therefore, its price collapses. The goal of this paper is to analyze a recent issue as it is the case of Bitcoin, and to compare it with cases of historical speculative epidemics that, we consider, share several similarities with the cryptocurrency. By applying the log-periodic power law model, as a tool for the quantitative analysis, and through the comparison with other historical bubbles, we demonstrate that the market price of the cryptocurrency between August 2015 and December 2017 seems to present the typical behavior of a bubble.
History has proved that the so called financial bubbles have been the cause of several crisis that have had harmful effects on the economic systems. In general terms, bubbles were generated as a result of an exponential and systematic growth of an asset’s price, resulting from an unjustified demand, regarding its intrinsic value. This ends up in a generalized sell-out and, therefore, its price collapses. The goal of this paper is to analyze a recent issue as it is the case of Bitcoin, and to compare it with cases of historical speculative epidemics that, we consider, share several similarities with the cryptocurrency. By applying the log-periodic power law model, as a tool for the quantitative analysis, and through the comparison with other historical bubbles, we demonstrate that the market price of the cryptocurrency between August 2015 and December 2017 seems to present the typical behavior of a bubble.
Description
Fil: Andrada, Guillermo Enrique. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.
Fil: Balerdi, Manuel Ignacio. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.
Fil: Balerdi, Manuel Ignacio. Universidad de San Andrés. Departamento de Economía; Argentina.