Tesis de Doctorado en Economía

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    Economic Regional Dynamics in Argentina during Import Substitution Industrialization: a Comparative Analysis (1914 - 1959)
    (2024-02) Talassino, Mauricio Rodrigo
    Argentina exhibits significant regional heterogeneity in demography, income, geography (with varying availability of natural resources), and productive specialization. However, economic analyses of regional disparities relying on quantitative evidence for the first half of the 20th century are notably limited. During this period, Argentina, along with much of Latin America, began to engage in Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI), and its impact on the current economy is still a matter of ongoing discussion. To analyze the regional dynamics during the ISI period in Argentina, the initial phase of this study involves providing comparable GDP estimates for all provinces during this timeframe. Specifically, for selected years in the 1930s and 1940s, provincial GDP is estimated using a top-down approach. This involves distributing each sector of the national GDP among the prov-inces, relying on allocation indicators derived from provincial variables associated with each sector. By combining the newly derived estimates with those existing for previous and subse-quent years, the following step involves a comparative analysis of regional performance in terms of GDP and GDP per capita, spanning from the late 19th to the early 21st centuries. The findings reveal economic and population concentration in the Pampean region, accompanied by relatively high and growing GDP per capita in Capital Federal and Patagonia. At the same time, the poor provinces in the northern part of the country consistently lag behind. Focusing on the ISI period, this study also examines the presence of economic convergence among provinces and the role played by productivity and productive structure differences in regional disparities. The results indicate that, overall, regional disparities tend to widen, par-ticularly in the first phase of industrialization before World War II. Additionally, the study iden-tifies and characterizes sectoral differences across provinces, revealing that productivity is more heterogeneous across provinces than across sectors. This suggests that while existing sectoral differences may contribute to explaining productivity asymmetries during the Argentine ISI period, other more influential factors may be at play. Among these potential factors, the study explores the effects of regional interactions on convergence, using spatial econometric tools on departmental GDP data for the 1950s to control for spatial dependence in growth re-gressions. This approach enables the decomposition of growth regression estimates into direct effects, net of spatial dependence, and indirect effects generated by contagion among regions. The findings indicate that the special effects run in the opposite direction of convergence, and regional responses to exogenous shocks are notably heterogeneous. The findings of this thesis underscore the importance of incorporating the regional component in the study of Argentina’s economic history and the need for quantitative support in the analy-sis.
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    Essays on experimental economics
    (2021-12) Freira, Lucía
    El presente trabajo de doctorado cuenta de tres capítulos y cada uno de los capítulos corresponde a un experimento diferente que busca indagar sobre ciertas conductas de las personas observando sus reacciones a través de indicadores que no dependen de auto reportes como, por ejemplo, medidas relevadas por terceros o medidas psicométricas y fisiológicas. El primer trabajo estudia el impacto de la presencia de una persona en el baño sobre el comportamiento de lavarse las manos y tirar la cisterna. Las estimaciones muestran que ser expuesto a un observador aumenta la probabilidad de lavarse las manos en 13 puntos porcentuales y aumenta la probabilidad de tirar la cisterna en 15 puntos porcentuales. Dado que el beneficio individual de realizar ambas acciones es inferior al beneficio social de realizarlas, los resultados brindan apoyo a la idea de que la presión social podría actuar como un mecanismo adicional para resolver subóptimos sociales derivados de estas externalidades. El segundo trabajo sugiere un fenómeno de desensibilización o habituación de las personas que han sufrido delitos. Se realizó un experimento de laboratorio en el que se le mostraron imágenes de actos criminales a un grupo de sujetos, algunos de los cuales habían sido previamente víctimas de un delito. Se midieron marcadores biológicos de estrés e índices conductuales de control cognitivo antes y después de que los participantes vieran una serie de videos reales. Un grupo fue expuesto a videos relacionados con crimen mientras que el otro grupo fue expuesto a videos sin situaciones de violencia. Se encontró que los participantes que todavía no habían sido víctimas y fueron expuestos al primer video mostraban cambios significativos en el nivel de cortisol, la frecuencia cardíaca y las medidas de control cognitivo. En cambio, las personas que sí habían sido víctimas y fueron expuestas al mismo video mostraban marcadores biológicos y rendimiento cognitivo comparables a los medidos en las personas expuestas al video de control. Por último, el tercer trabajo muestra cómo una noticia negativa que destaca los posibles riesgos sobre un evento vital relevante genera temor a la gran mayoría de los participantes con independencia de la afinidad partidaria. Sin embargo, frente a este temor común, la afinidad partidaria actúa como un prisma que moldea el impacto del miedo de modo diverso. Frente a una noticia negativa sobre la vacuna, quienes tienen posiciones partidarias más definidas, responden reforzando sus creencias previas, sin embargo, los que se presentan con una posición política menos definida son quienes aparecen más susceptibles a modificar sus concepciones previas.
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    Essays in applied economics
    (2020?) Ertola Navajas, María Gabriela
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    Sampled networks, peer effects and spatial VAR model
    (2019?) Izaguirre, Alejandro
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    Online price indices : methodological improvements and applications to inflation forecasting and real exchange rate estimation
    (2019-06) Bertolotto, Manuel I.
    El primer trabajo presenta una nueva metodología para calcular índices de precios al consumidor (IPC) con precios online ya que las utilizadas corrientemente muestran tendencias negativas anormales provocadas por la alta rotación de productos. Mientras que el enfoque tradicional para calcular el IPC busca un reemplazo cuando se descontinua un producto, la metodología de “closest-match” busca un artículo comparable cada vez que ingresa uno nuevo al mercado. El método propuesto es escalable y produce resultados similares al IPC tradicional para todos los países en la muestra (Alemania, Países Bajos, España, Reino Unido, y Estados Unidos). El segundo trabajo introduce a los índices de precios online como variables relevantes para pronosticar el IPC. Con la aplicación de la metodología propuesta, los pronósticos de inflación a un mes son más precisos que los publicados por Bloomberg y otros modelos estadísticos para los casos de Australia, Canadá, Francia, Alemania, Grecia, Irlanda, Italia, los Países Bajos, el Reino Unido y los Estados Unidos. Así mismo, al de la Reserva Federal de Philadelphia, realizado con tres meses de anticipación. El tercer trabajo utiliza una base de datos con frecuencia diaria para estimar que la tasa de reversión al equilibrio del tipo de cambio real (TCR) es inferior a un año. Hasta ahora, las estimaciones de esta tasa oscilaban entre un mínimo de dos a cinco años, lo cual era inconsistente con la teoría de paridad de poder de compra y la ley del único precio.
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    Essays on Experimental Economics
    (2018-05) Anauati, María Victoria
    This doctoral thesis consists of three empirical essays that have in common the use of robust research designs to test the hypothesis set out in each chapter. The first chapter uses a randomized controlled trial in a laboratory environment to test the comparative statics predictions of a new approach to collective action games based on the method of stability sets. The second chapter uses a field randomized controlled trial to estimate the learning impact and cost-effectiveness of two different teacher training methods, the structured curricula and coaching, in state schools of Argentina. Finally, the third chapter uses the insights of Big Data to analyze a large dataset that combines information on more than 9,500 articles published in the top five economic journals with detailed yearly citation data obtained from Google Scholar. This chapter quantifies one dimension of economic research not addressed previously, namely, the extent to which life cycles of economic research articles differs across research fields.
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    Some useful results for the simulation of non optimal general equilibrium economies
    (2017-05) Pierri, Damián
    This paper investigates the empirical evaluation of infinite horizon non-optimal economies by means of numerical simulations. In particular, the paper answers the following question: is it possible to derive a general framework which guarantees that numerical simulations truly reflect the behavior of endogenous variables in the model?. Under mild assumptions, this paper provides an affirmative answer to this question for endowment economies with incomplete markets and infinitely many exogenous states. For this type of models, the paper presents an accurate calibration method. For economies with finitely many shocks, even under stronger assumptions, it is only possible to show that a numerically computable, time independent and recursive representation of the sequential equilibrium generates a stationary Markov process, which is a necessary condition to answer the above mentioned question.
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    Economics of rural infrastructure : evaluating the provision of transport and electricity in Peru : 1. Electoral cycles and renegotiation of transport infrastructure concession contracts ; 2. Impact of rural electrification on education, a case study from Peru ; 3. Roads and agriculture : impacts of connectivity in Peru
    (2016-03-01) Aguirre Montoya, Julio César
    Using a unique governmental database from Peru, I find that electoral cycles significantly affect the hazard of renegotiation of transport infrastructure concession contracts. The effect of electoral cycles remains robust when applying a varied set of specifications. In addition, electoral cycles have positive marginal effects on the hazard of renegotiation of concession contracts between 3% and 6%. These results provide a perspective on the importance of enforcing institutional and regulatory supervisory activities of infrastructure concession contracts in order to minimize possible political influences on the contractual stability of these contracts.
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    Evaluación de impacto mediante aleatorización ("field experiments") de tres programas educativos
    (2013-05-01) Cid de Orta, Alejandro
    Using a randomized trial, we evaluate the impact of an innovative and free privatelymanaged middle school in a poor neighborhood of a developing country. The research compares adolescents randomly selected to enter the treatment school with those that were not drawn in the lottery. Not only have we found better educational outcomes in the treatment group relative to control subjects, but also we find positive impacts on expectations. Several features of the treatment school –autonomy to hire teachers, commitment of the staff, discipline, extended time at school, close contact with the family and the community, interaction with students of other social contexts, educational and recreational workshops after school- contrast with the features of a highly inflexible public education system embedded in a deep crisis. Our results shed light on new approaches to education that may contribute to improve opportunities for disadvantaged adolescents. This cost-effective treatment sounds appealing for a developing country with scant resources.
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    Essays on the economics of crime
    (2012-10) Munyo, Ignacio
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